Predictive Analytics – Optimization – Performance Management

Vanguard SW

Vanguard Software is the only Corporate Performance Management (CPM) vendor with fully integrated and scalable Advanced Analytics, Simulation, Optimization and Artificial Intelligence capabilities.  Vanguard’s Integrated Business Planning (IBP) delivers a collaborative, web based platform that unites roles, teams, and departments in achieving breakaway performance within their Supply Chain Planning, Finance, Sales, Human Capital and IT.

Advanced Analytics: Vanguard Advanced Analytics applies an exhaustive range of time-series and model-based methods to not only capture and extrapolate historical patterns, but to simulate and compare innumerable outcomes from seemingly unprecedented events and circumstances. These can include product launches, proposed changes to business plans, or long-range capital and investment decisions with effects that will span an entire product life-cycle, or even generations of products. Models, Methods and Techniques include:

  • Moving Averages
  • Exponential Smoothing
  • Regression Analysis – Models
  • Hybrid Forecasting Methods
  • Decomposition Forecasting Methods
  • Spectral Analysis
  • Custom Forecasting Models

Monte Carlo Simulation: Simulate complex systems to model uncertainty and volatility and better manage business opportunity and risk. Reveal the full range of potential business outcomes and the probability of each with expected values for distinct courses of action.

  • Incorporate multiple sources of uncertainty into your forecast model
  • Run simulations 100 times faster than spreadsheet add-ins — 1,500 times faster with the grid computing option
  • Automate sensitivity analysis
  • Automate distribution fitting using historical data
  • User-defined distributions
  • Correlated inputs
  • Unlimited number of stochastic inputs

New-Product Forecasting: In addition to Monte Carlo simulation, Advanced Analytics can apply multiple advanced techniques to new-product forecasting, or combine various methods into a single forecast.

  • Comparable Forecasting: Applies the historical pattern of an established product to a new product. In Forecast Server, users can select comparable products by any attribute – product family, SKU code, region, etc.
  • Spread Curve: Applies the pattern of a demand factor (e.g. seasonality, decay, life cycle, region) to a new-product forecast
  • Supersession: Used when a new product is likely to cannibalize or replace an existing product or set of products
  • Adoption Modeling: Captures new-product launch effects and long-range product-life-cycle effects

Long-Range Forecasting: Vanguard complements its exhaustive range of time-series forecasting methods with model-based approaches that factor product life-cycle effects into long-range forecasts. Model-based methods include:

  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Decision analysis
  • Stochastic optimization

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